With impending cuts to Germany’s feed-in tariff, 2011 will see a modest 11 percent increase in solar installations, however, new markets will rise to the surface, helping to fill the shoes left by the world’s largest solar market, says Shyam Mehta, senior analyst at GTM Research, the leading economic research and advisory arm for Greentech Media.
“Once the German feed-in tariff cuts kick in, life will be difficult,” said Mehta, a well-known expert in PV market supply. “Past that, we expect higher but more steady growth in 2012 and 2013.”
But which markets will emerge? Which technologies will win out in the long run? What companies will hold their ground?
Mehta is one of a dozen industry experts slated to speak at Solarplaza’s 12th executive conference June 8 in Munich. The conference will explore “The Solar Future” in a single-day event, packed with information and insight from an all-star panel of industry experts like Mehta, including experts from Barclays, McKinsey and iSuppli.
“We are glad that top market analysts such as Shyam Mehta will take part in our conference to discuss the strategic implications of the surge in demand in 2010 and upcoming feed-in tariff cuts in Germany and Italy.”said Edwin Koot,CEO of the conference organizer Solarplaza. “The question is: will the industry be able to enforce price drops of solar modules and systems after 2010 and will margin compression lead to the expected industry consolidation?”
With the German feed-in tariff being scaled back, the solar industry could head for a shake-out in the coming years if not prepared. Expect big changes in the solar industry in the years to come, said Mehta, who predicts an increase of 20 percent a year from 2012 and on.
In a global recession, solar companies continue to tap new customers and race toward grid parity. Mehta predicts that the world will reach 17 Gigawatts of capacity by 2013.
"It is safe to say that the solar world in 2020 will be vastly different from the one that we see today,” Mehta said.
For more information on the conference “The Solar Future” in Munich on June 8 at the Sheraton Munich Arabellapark , and to register, please visit www.thesolarfuture.com, or contact Edwin Koot, [email protected].