Rooftop PV Information PaperNational Electricity Forecasting
Published: June 1, 2012
PV energy produced in 2011 is estimated at 1,200 GWh, or 0.6% of annual energy. This means it is already at an ‘observable’ level in the NEM, and while there has been no significant operational impact on the wholesale
market, this has the potential to occur if capacity starts to impact investments in the network and/or large scale generation.
Forecast increases in system installations are expected to offset a large amount of energy that would have otherwise been provided by the NEM.
Installed capacity is forecast to reach 5,100 MW by 2020 and almost 12,000 MW by 2031 (based on a moderate growth scenario).
Rooftop PV uptake is expected to be relatively restrained to 2017 (averaging 320 MW per year for the moderate scenario), due mainly to a reduction or withdrawal in feed-in tariffs, and decreased demand from installations.
From 2018 to 2025 uptake is expected to accelerate, with growth forecast to average 620 MW per year (moderate scenario) and 1,130 MW per year (rapid scenario).
From 2026 to 2031 uptake continues to increase further as incentives continue to increase, growth for new dwellings continues, and installations on existing dwellings start to slow.
In the mainland regions, summer maximum demand typically occurs in the late afternoon, when rooftop PV generation is declining from its midday peak and is operating at an estimated 28%– 38% of capacity.
Maximum demand in Tasmania typically occurs on a winter evening, when rooftop PV generation is negligible.